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| Mubarakzentrismus in Egyptian media |
Hosni Mubarak is 82 years old and stained his hair. He is Egyptian dictator since 1981 and has never called with a sword in his hand for a jihad against the U.S.. That's enough to make it a strategic partner to bring the Americans in the region. In Democracy Index 2010 his country is ranked 138 of 167, two places behind China. In Egypt, people disappear. This is done elsewhere, but there to complain, mostly. The West has always protected Mubarak. He is regarded as a reliable Stabitlitätsfaktor in the Arab world. This is already worth much. Above all, he offers no shelter Islamists, has no secret nuclear program and Israel signed a peace treaty. As you may already be tortured a bit. Corruption is of course the Arab presidential duties, such as the cult of personality and really needs to be mentioned, not extra. The latter culminated last year in a Photoshopfauxpas after meeting Mubarak with U.S. President Obama, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Palestinian President Abbas and King Abdullah II of Jordan. Mubarak was retouched by the Egyptian state press the left edge in the middle of the picture, as he would lead the delegation. That should not have burdened the political relationship to the conference, but provided at least for some amusement.
Because Mubarak as the West abgesehen von seiner medialen Geltungssucht also leicht macht, ist er bei den Islamisten nicht sonderlich gut angeschrieben. Die ägyptische Muslimbruderschaft, die größte und daher verbotene Oppositionspartei, ist schon seit der britischen Kolonialzeit ein politischer Faktor im Land. Obwohl sie erklärt habe soll, im Falle eines Regimewechsels nicht an einer neuen Regierung teilnehmen zu wollen, ist das noch kein Grund zum aufatmen. Die Frage, ob die Muslimbrüder ein eventuell entstehendes Machtvakuum für sich nutzen könnten, dürfte zurzeit etliche westliche Staatskanzleien umtreiben. Insbesondere Israel ist über die Demonstrationen und eine mögliche Ablöse Mubaraks nicht besonders begeistert. Verständlich: Israel hat not many friends in the region. No wonder you can even if you could arrange with a neighbor, at least, even if the ruled for 30 years with an emergency law. Unnoticed by the world make many Israelis leave the neighbors because the security situation there so far was the best in the area. Egypt has cooperated also in terms of border fence with the Gaza Strip with Israel and over again. The Islamists are pleased, of course not in the least. Mubarak goes against them before with the utmost brutality. The keyword terrorism allowed since 11 September 2011 very much. Amnesty International reported in 2006 on the interrogation of a kidnapped terror suspect from Italy:
"In April, known as Abu Omar Osama Mostafa Hassan Nasr was brought before the public prosecutor. For the first time since he se in abduction from Italy in February 2003 it was permitted him to the interrogation in e s h incurring attorney in . He described in e se abduction in Italy and unlawful return to Egypt . Abu Omar stated during se he was tortured in secret detention in Egypt to se in . He had been suspended on the other extreme temperature differences and tortured him with electric shocks to the genitals. " AI
Auch wenn hier natürlich Aussage gegen Aussage stehen dürfte: Ägypten findet sich auch auf der Liste jener Staaten, in denen die CIA mutmaßlich Verdächtige foltern ließ. Ein vom Schweizer Geheimdienst abgefangenes Fax des ägyptischen Außenministers an die ägyptische Botschaft in London sprach von 23 irakischen und afghanischen Gefangenen, die von den USA auf einen Militärstützpunkt an der rumänischen Schwarzmeerküste verbracht worden seien. Die Menschenrechtssituation im Land am Nil ist fatal. Was es den Ägyptern erlaubt die einfachsten Grundrechte mit Füßen zu treten, ist ihr bisher positives Verhältnis zum Westen. Auch wenn Barak Obama Mubarak mittlerweile asked to reforms, human rights and democracy are often only a political argument in the dispute between two States. Admittedly, Egypt could not have legalized the stoning of women rather breaker without causing international protests, but it was allowed to continue to be as non-friendly countries, suspended without criticism.
The same applies to the now freed Tunisia, which under his potentates Ben Ali in Democracy Index 2010 still ended up with 144 square behind Egypt. In the directory of the worldwide press freedom even reached only place 164 of 178, Egypt was nevertheless still landed at number 127, 13 points ahead of Russia and five in front of the Israeli settlement West Bank. Mubarak may perhaps not be the paragon for Anitkorruption and Egypt like in the world corruption index, 98th out of 178 still behind Tunisia (ranked 59) are, however, that the wife of a president by the authorities of all transactions on the amount of 500,000 dinars (about Report € 250,000) was to be able to record and it is likely to have been even for the Arab-North African region a singularity. Leila Trabelsi has comforted before her departure from Tunisia with 1.5 tons of gold. Hungry they will therefore probably also in exile do not have to. Her husband, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali had in 1987 without bloodshed an die Staatsspitze geputscht. Er hat, wie auch Mubarak, einen militärischen Hintergrund und gute Verbindungen zur CIA. Tunesien stützte sich außenpolitisch wesentlich auf seine ehemalige Kolonialmacht Frankreich, die bereits diverses Sicherheitsmaterial bereit gestellt hatte, um es zur Unterstützung Ben Alis auszufliegen. Offensichtlich hat man es sich dann doch anders überlegt. Am Ende war Frankreich nicht einmal mehr bereit die Familie des gestürzten Diktators aufzunehmen. Zurzeit befindet er sich angeblich in Saudi-Arabien.
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| Bevölkerungspyramide Tunesiens (2005) |
Die Ursachen für die Revolte in Tunesien, die sich nunmehr auf Ägypten, aber auch auf den Jemen ausgebreitet hat, sind vielschichtig: Fast 24% der Bevölkerung sind unter 14 Jahre alt. Die Arbeitslosigkeit bei den Jungen beträgt über 30%, in Ägypten sind es sogar 80%. Das Durchschnittsalter in Tunesien beträgt etwa 28 Jahre, in anderen Staaten der Region ist die Situation ähnlich. Die niedergeschlagene Revolution im Iran wurde ebenfalls von einer zum Teil gut gebildeten aber perspektivenlosen jungen Generation vorangetrieben. Die Korruption und Vetternwirtschaft wirken als weitere Katalysatoren. Die neuen Kommunikationsmöglichkeiten über das Internet und die Berichterstattung von Al Jazeera tragen ihr Übriges bei, weshalb Egypt, meanwhile, both the Internet, has closed and the reception of foreign television channels. How desperate are the young people in these countries also show the self-immolation, which have been exacerbated in Tunisia, the Revolution. Another was triggered by rising food prices. The international financial market and jugglers, who carried on in recent months, prices for staple foods in the air have, so - surely unintentionally - contributed something good.
The question that now all is: How far is the breath of the revolution to spread about the area? It is likely that at least if Egypt still expected. As can be seen relatively stable retirement states in the Gulf region, which are capable of population, higher living standards to be funded over resource rents. This includes, in addition to Saudi Arabia ( Democracy Index place 160), Kuwait ( DI 114), Bahrain ( DI 122), Qatar ( DI 137), the United Arab Emirates ( DI 148) and Oman (TUE 143) and Libya ( DI 158). This seems questionable to me but for those systems which are resource-rich, but not able or are not willing to pass that wealth on to. One of the most corrupt regimes in the region, Algeria, has a youth unemployment rate of 20-30% and despite its oil and especially gas wealth. classified as stable are probably the monarchies of Morocco ( Press Freedom Index space 135, Corruption Index percepción 85th, Democracy Index space 116) and Jordan ( Press Freedom Index space 120, Corruption Index percepción place 50, Democracy Index Place 120), despite the relative lack of raw materials and similar problems as their neighbors, take a relatively open policy and the ruling houses - not least because of their direct descent from the Prophet Mohammed - in the population increased legitimacy To enjoy as long-term dictators like Mubarak and Ben Ali.
It would be irresponsible to claim that anyone can say at present reliable as the situation in the Arab-North African region developed. would be candidates for a revolution in any case it enough. If I had them list in order of probability of regime change, these would be: Egypt, Yemen ( DI 146), Algeria ( DI 125), Sudan ( DI 151) and Syria ( DI 152). Whether the people in these countries can realistically fight for the freedom also depends on whether the West its solidarity with the local dictators breaks and whether they are willing to vacate the field or whether they want to maintain by force of arms if necessary. How nervous do the current processes other regimes, such as is reflected by the fact that China's Internet search on "Egypt" is now suppressed. One commentator recently said, this year could be the Arab world in 1989. Even if the premature euphoria may have been: The hope dies last known.
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